NBA Quarterly Trends Dashboard

Analysis of 7,150 games from 2021-01-01 to 2026-02-05

7,150
Games Analyzed ? Total number of games in the dataset with complete quarterly score data
66.1%
Win Prob (Q1) ? Percentage of games where the team leading after Q1 went on to win
82.1%
Win Prob (Q3) ? Percentage of games where the team leading after Q3 went on to win
12-13
Prediction Record ? Moneyline prediction accuracy: correct predictions vs incorrect predictions

Today's Games & Predictions

Matchup Spread Predicted Winner Win % Confidence Streaks & Form Key Factors
Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks -11.5 Atlanta Hawks 100.0% A Hawks 2W (6/10 Last Games)
Wizards 1W (4/10 Last Games)
H2H Hawks 3-2		 Elo: Atlanta Hawks +181
San Antonio Spurs @ Brooklyn Nets +13.5 San Antonio Spurs 84.8% A Nets 3L (1/10 Last Games)
Spurs 4W (8/10 Last Games)
H2H Nets 1-4		 Elo: San Antonio Spurs +284, Travel: 1373 mi, Away: 4W streak, Home: 3L streak
Houston Rockets @ Orlando Magic +1.5 Houston Rockets 56.7% C Magic 1W (4/10 Last Games)
Rockets 2L (6/10 Last Games)
H2H Magic 1-4		 Elo: Houston Rockets +95
Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers -2.0 Miami Heat 65.9% C 76ers 1L (6/10 Last Games)
Heat 1L (6/10 Last Games)
H2H 76ers 0-5		 Rest: Away +2 days, Travel: 1023 mi
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers +3.5 Minnesota Timberwolves 61.4% C Angeles Clippers 2L (6/10 Last Games)
Minnesota Timberwolves 1W (4/10 Last Games)
H2H Angeles Clippers 0-5		 Travel: 2171 mi
Portland Trail Blazers @ Chicago Bulls N/A Portland Trail Blazers 60.7% D Bulls 6L (4/10 Last Games)
Trail Blazers 6L (4/10 Last Games)
H2H Bulls 4-1		 Rest: Away +2 days, Travel: 1755 mi, Home: 6L streak, Away: 6L streak
Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns +5.0 Los Angeles Lakers 62.6% D Suns 1L (6/10 Last Games)
Angeles Lakers 2W (7/10 Last Games)
H2H Suns 3-2		 Even matchup
Charlotte Hornets @ Indiana Pacers +12.5 Charlotte Hornets 51.9% D Pacers 2L (3/10 Last Games)
Hornets 7W (8/10 Last Games)
H2H Pacers 3-2		 Rest: Home +2 days, Away: 7W streak
Sacramento Kings @ Dallas Mavericks N/A Dallas Mavericks 52.8% D Mavericks 5L (4/10 Last Games)
Kings 10L (0/10 Last Games)
H2H Mavericks 2-3		 Elo: Dallas Mavericks +68, Travel: 1438 mi, Home: 5L streak, Away: 10L streak
New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz N/A Utah Jazz 59.5% D Jazz 1L (2/10 Last Games)
Pelicans 2L (4/10 Last Games)
H2H Jazz 0-5		 Travel: 1239 mi

Machine Learning Models

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Machine learning models trained on the full dataset to predict game outcomes based on quarterly scores and team features. Best Model: Gradient Boosting achieves 97.6% accuracy.

Enhanced Pre-Game Model

Model: XGBoost

Accuracy: 71.3%

Features: 20 selected

Model Accuracy CV
Logistic Regression95.0%94.4%
Random Forest95.7%95.2%
Gradient Boosting97.6%96.7%
Random Forest (Tuned)95.9%95.0%
Ensemble97.0%96.6%

Prediction Performance History

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Cumulative accuracy of moneyline predictions over time. Shows both prediction accuracy and spread coverage rate (when predicted winner covered their closing spread).

Filter by Teams

Win Probability & Comeback Analysis

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Win probability increases as the game progresses: Q1: 66.1%, Q2: 73.7%, Q3: 82.1%. However, 17.4% of games see the trailing team come back to win.

Quarter Performance Correlation

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Correlation between each quarter's point differential and the final game outcome. Q3 correlation: 0.776 (strongest predictor). 1,246 games (17.9%) saw Q3 leaders lose.

Quarterly Scores vs Winner

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Historical relationship between quarterly point differentials and final game winner. Shows win rates by quarter differential ranges and correlations between each quarter's performance and final outcome.
Quarter Correlation
with Final		 Win Rate
(Home wins Q)
Q1 0.465 70.5%
Q2 0.633 76.8%
Q3 0.776 83.9%

Point Differentials Analysis

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Analysis of point differentials at each quarter versus final outcome. Q1→Final correlation: 0.465, Q2→Final: 0.633, Q3→Final: 0.776. 79.8% of games have Q3 differential sign matching final outcome.
Key Findings: Average change from Q3 to final: -0.20 points (std: 10.22). Increased: 3,429 games, Decreased: 3,345 games, Unchanged: 376 games.

Scoring Patterns

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Average points scored by quarter for home and away teams in the filtered dataset.

Lead Size & Win Probability

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What This Measures: For games where one team leads after Q3 (tied games excluded), this shows the historical win rate for the leading team based on their point advantage. The analysis is team-agnostic—it doesn't matter if the leading team is home or away. For example, "1-4 points" means: when a team leads by 1-4 points after Q3, what percentage of those leading teams went on to win? Larger leads correlate with higher win rates. Spread data available for 6,899 games. Overall cover rate for leading teams: 77.1%.
Lead Size Range Win Probability
(for leading team)		 Games Avg SpreadCover Rate

Rest & Travel Impact

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Detailed quantitative analysis of how rest days and travel distance affect game outcomes. Average home rest: 2.93 days, away rest: 2.89 days. Average travel: 688.8 miles. Back-to-back games: 2,388 (16.7% of team-games).

Rest Days Impact

Rest Advantage Home Win Rate Avg Margin Games
-2 or less48.7%-0.35275
-151.4%0.551,098
055.5%2.093,950
+157.2%2.511,351
+263.8%4.53312
+3 or more62.2%4.2998
Back-to-Back: Home B2B win rate: 50.2% vs 56.3% (non-B2B). Away B2B win rate: 40.7% vs 45.5% (non-B2B).

Travel Distance Impact

Travel Distance Away Win Rate Avg Margin Games
0-500 miles44.5%2.052,893
500-1000 miles43.9%2.232,686
1000-2000 miles46.1%1.521,418
2000+ miles45.1%0.20153
Long Travel: 1,571 games with travel >1000 miles (22.0% of away games).

Timezone Change Impact

Timezone Change Away Win Rate Avg Margin Games
044.0%2.172,658
144.3%1.942,465
244.9%2.031,288
3+47.4%1.28739

Combined Rest + Travel

Condition Away Win Rate Avg Margin Games
B2B Long Travel29.0%8.0469
B2B Only41.3%3.201,227
Long Travel Only46.8%1.081,497
Normal45.0%1.864,342